Simandou represents the world's largest undeveloped high-grade iron ore deposit. When operational, it will introduce substantial new tonnage of >65% Fe ore into global markets. Our analysis quantifies the specific timeline and volume implications.

Market consensus varies widely from late 2025 to 2027. Our satellite monitoring and infrastructure analysis provides a data-driven timeline based on observable construction progress rather than company statements or speculation.

DBX has successfully predicted commissioning dates within 30-day windows for 15+ major mining projects. We use multiple verification methods including satellite imagery, vessel tracking, and ground intelligence. Our detailed methodology and confidence intervals are explained in the full report.

 Infrastructure development has reached a critical phase. Our latest satellite assessment from August 2025 tracks specific completion percentages for each component. The detailed status of rail, port, and mining infrastructure is available in our reports.

Rolling stock represents a critical path item for the project. Our intelligence tracks procurement, delivery, and commissioning status. Specific details about current deliveries and timelines are contained in our infrastructure analysis.

The dual-consortium structure (WCS and Simfer) creates complexity in coordination and timing. Our analysis examines the operational implications and potential sequencing gaps that could affect market entry timing.

Full capacity targets are publicly known. However, the ramp-up trajectory and intermediate production levels are critical for market positioning. Our analysis provides year-by-year projections based on infrastructure readiness.

 High-grade iron ore premiums and freight markets will be affected. The magnitude and timing of these impacts depend on production ramp-up rates and infrastructure efficiency, which we model in detail.

Both opportunities and risks exist across the value chain. Our analysis identifies specific impacts for traders, miners, and shipping companies based on their market positioning and exposure levels.

We combine satellite imagery analysis, vessel tracking data, and established ground networks. Our methodology uses machine learning for change detection and multiple verification sources. Technical specifications are detailed in our reports.

Sellside research relies primarily on company guidance and public statements. We use direct observation of physical infrastructure progress, providing ground truth rather than forward-looking statements.

Public sources provide fragmented and often outdated information. Our integrated analysis combines multiple data streams updated monthly, with interpretation from specialists who have tracked similar projects globally.

Our clients include commodity trading houses, mining companies, shipping operators, and institutional investors. We serve organizations that require actionable intelligence for strategic positioning.

• Executive Brief (3 pages): High-level timeline and volume projections
• Infrastructure Report (8 pages): Detailed construction status and analysis
• Full Study (20 pages): Complete analysis with modeling and recommendations
• Monitoring Service: Ongoing updates with analyst support

This intelligence has commercial value and competitive implications. We verify professional use and ensure our analysis reaches decision-makers who can act on the insights provided.

Reports are licensed for internal use within your organization. Redistribution restrictions apply to maintain information advantage for our clients.

Infrastructure is 85% complete based on our August assessment. The window for strategic positioning narrows as first production approaches. Organizations that wait for certainty will miss the opportunity for advantageous positioning.

Our analysis includes probability weightings and scenario planning for various timeline outcomes. Understanding the range of possibilities and their likelihoods is critical for risk management.

Satellite monitoring occurs monthly. Our monitoring service provides alerts for material changes and quarterly comprehensive updates. The next major update releases in a few days days.

Our successful predictions for projects like Vale's S11D, Roy Hill, and Oyu Tolgoi are documented. Specific accuracy metrics and case studies are available upon request.

 DBX provides independent analysis without investment banking relationships or corporate advisory conflicts. Our revenue comes exclusively from intelligence subscriptions.

Our reports include confidence intervals and sensitivity analysis. We present probability-weighted scenarios rather than single-point predictions, allowing you to make informed decisions across multiple outcomes.

We employ multiple satellite sources with resolution sufficient for infrastructure monitoring. Technical specifications and image samples are included in our reports.

Custom monitoring services are available for qualified clients. Contact us to discuss specific intelligence requirements.

 Based on observable infrastructure progress, first iron ore shipments from Simandou are increasingly probable within the next 90-120 days, not the 2027+ timeline assumed by many market participants. The implications for your positioning depend on your specific market exposure, which our analysis helps quantify.